About this dashboard

Interactive explorer over Florida climate refugia metrics derived from PRISM 250 m climate surfaces and station-calibrated heatwave-frequency proxies, plus future projections from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles.

Methods (summary)

We define a 30-year baseline (1950–1979) and a 43-year recent period (1981–2023), and quantify summer (JJAS) heatwave exposure with a Gaussian-closure proxy calibrated against 78 GHCN-D / COOP stations. Leave-one-out cross-validation gives Pearson r = 0.79, RMSE = 3.78 days/month, and a small underprediction bias of −0.78 days/month. Refugia are scored as RI = 0.5·(1 − HFIn) + 0.5·(1 − ΔTn) with robust min–max normalization on the 1st–99th percentiles.

Future projections

Delta-change downscaling onto the PRISM 250 m grid using:

• CMIP5 CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES365, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 — RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
• CMIP6 GFDL-ESM4, MIROC6, ACCESS-CM2, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5 — SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5

Two periods: near-term (2040–2069), far-term (2070–2099). Robust refugia defined as pixels in the top 25% of RI for ≥ 3 of 5 ensemble members.

Citation

Data & code

Two data archives are available in the sidebar:

• Historical climate data (~440 MB) — all observed-period rasters: heat (HFI, ΔT, RI, climate velocity), night (NRI, WNFI, ΔTmin), precipitation (PRI, drought / wet-extreme frequencies), solar / PET (SRI), and the composite CRI.
• Future climate data (~2.6 GB) — per-model GCM runs, ensemble means and agreement layers, cross-generation comparisons (CMIP5 vs CMIP6), and persistence maps.

Per-layer GeoTIFFs are also linked from the sidebar's Download GeoTIFF button. All rasters are EPSG:3086 (NAD83 / Florida GDL Albers) at 250 m. Build pipeline and analysis code: [link to repo].

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